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This paper analyzes the effect of omitting a persistent covariate in the GARCH-X model. In particular, we show that if the relevant persistent covariate is omitted and the usual GARCH(1,1) model is fitted, the model will be estimated approximately as an IGARCH model. This may well explain the...
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The mean reversion of real exchange rates in G5 countries depends on both countries’ fiscal deficits/surplus in a nonlinear way. When the fiscal policy pushes the real exchange rate to be deviated further away from the equilibrium level, the mean reversion process is faster.
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