Some recent developments in the macroeconometric analysis of time series are discussed in the light of Haavelmo (1944). Experimental design in econometrics is discussed and related to the case of passive observation. The general ideas are illustrated with an analysis of the long-run and...

The paper presents a comparative analysis of monetary transmission mechanisms and changes in them after the "second ERM" in March 1983. The empirical model investigates the determination of money, income, prices, and interest rates in Germany, Denmark, and Italy based on the cointegrated VAR...

Several studies have developed empirical models of U.K. money demand using the century of annual and phase-average data in Friedman and Schwartz (1982). The current paper evaluates key models from those studies, employing tests of constancy and encompassing. The evidence strongly favors an...

Even though pieces of empirical evidence individually may corroborate an economic theory, their joint existence may refute that same theory. Testing of rational expectations models provides a concrete illustration of this principle. Surprisingly, empirical refutation of a rational expectations...

Since the objective of economic policy is to change target variables in the DGP, when economic policy analysis uses an econometric model, it is important that the model delivers reliable inferences about policy responses in the DGP. This requires that the model be congruent and encompassing, and...