The theory of contrary opinion predicts price reversals following extremes in market sentiment. This research tests a survey-based sentiment index's usefulness as a contrary indicator across 28 U.S. futures markets. Using rigorous time-series tests, the sentiment index displays only a sporadic...

Multiproduct optimal hedging for simulated cattle feeding is compared to alternative hedging strategies using weekly price data for 1983-95. Out-of-sample means and variances of hedged feeding margins using estimated hedge ratios for four commodities suggest that there is no consistent...

This study investigates whether U.S. corn merchants can effectively manage the overnight price risk of cash corn purchased after the Chicago Board of Trade closes at 1:15 p.m. on either the electronic Project A market or in the corn contract traded on the Tokyo Grain Exchange. While neither...

This research examines the potential basis behavior and hedging effectiveness for the Minneapolis Grain Exchange's (MGE's) cash settled corn contract. MGE futures cash settle to the National Corn Index (NCI) calculated by the Data Transmission Network (DTN). Focusing on seven regions in...

A survey was used to gauge consumer preferences toward four fresh pork attributes: juiciness, tenderness, marbling, and leanness. The survey elicited consumer willingness-to-pay a premium for an improvement in these attributes. Approximately one-half of the respondents were willing to pay some...

Agricultural supply chains, especially those from producer to first handler, are relatively mature institutions. While agricultural economists often observe the evolution of marketing structures in developing nations, it is a rare opportunity to research a developing market within North America....

USDA and Cooperative Extension Service forecasts of hog prices are directly tested for incremental value vis-à-vis futures-based forecasts in a forecast encompassing framework. At horizons less than six months, the lean hog futures-based forecast is found to be more accurate than both the USDA...

We examine the role that habit plays when producers determine their hedge ratio. Data were collected from U.S. cotton growers in which they indicated their hedging position in 2001 and 2002 as well as their perceived profitability, land ownership structure, and income. To account for...

The storage-at-a-loss paradox—stocks despite inadequate price growth to cover storage costs—is an unresolved issue of long-standing interest to economists. Alternative explanations include risk premiums for futures market speculators, convenience yields from holding stocks, and...