In this paper, we prove a maximum principle for general stochastic differential Stackelberg games, and apply the theory to continuous time newsvendor problems. In the newsvendor problem, a manufacturer sells goods to a retailer, and the objective of both parties is to maximize expected profits...

The optimal investment policy for a standard multi-period mean–variance model is not time-consistent because the variance operator is not separable in the sense of the dynamic programming principle. With a nested conditional expectation mapping, we develop an investment model with time...

This paper undertakes a Bayesian analysis of optimal monetary policy for the U.K. We estimate a suite of monetary-policy models that include both forward- and backward-looking representations as well as large- and small-scale models. We find an optimal simple Taylor-type rule that accounts for...

With the aim to measure and monitor systemic risk, we present some topological metrics for the interbank exposures and the payments system networks. The evolution of such networks is analyzed, we draw important conclusions from the systemic risk's perspective and propose a measure of...

We propose a Markov chain model for credit rating changes. We do not use any distributional assumptions on the asset values of the rated companies but directly model the rating transitions process. The parameters of the model are estimated by a maximum likelihood approach using historical rating...

This paper extends the forestry maximum principle of Heaps (1984) to allow the benefits of harvesting to be the utility of the volume of the wood harvested as in Mitra and Wan (1985, 1986). Unlike those authors, however, time is treated as a continuous rather than as a discrete variable....

We develop in this paper a novel portfolio selection framework with a feature of double robustness in both return distribution modeling and portfolio optimization. While predicting the future return distributions always represents the most compelling challenge in investment, any underlying...

As recent experience suggests, the most significant economic fluctuations are those that combine real and financial factors. This paper works out a simple model that couples a version of Goodwin׳s (1967) growth cycle model of real fluctuations with insights drawn from a model of financial...

In the literature, econometricians typically assume that household income is the sum of a random walk permanent component and a transitory component, with uncorrelated permanent and transitory shocks. Using data on realized individual incomes and individual expectations of future incomes from...

In a forward-looking business cycle model, central banks can achieve the (timeless)optimal commitment equilibrium even in the absence of a commitment technology, if they are delegated with an objective function that is different from the societal one. The paper develops a general...