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metacognitive realism, thus decreasing their absolute bias and improving their calibration, although the effects were small. We also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010575519
The calibration of probability or confidence judgments concerns the association between the judgments and some estimate … statistical models---specifically mixed models for binary data---in the analysis of calibration. We illustrate this methodology by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009404611
Errors in estimating and forecasting often result from the failure to collect and consider enough relevant information. We examine whether attributes associated with persistence in information acquisition can predict performance in an estimation task. We focus on actively open-minded thinking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010661321
We report a mathematical result that casts doubt on the possibility of recalibration of probabilities using calibration …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010604786