The present paper examines the degree of comovement of gross capital inflows, which is a highly sensitive issue for policy makers. We estimate a dynamic hierarchical factor model that is able to decompose inflows in a sample of 47 economies into (i) a global factor common to all types of flows...

This paper empirically investigates whether donor countries punish sovereign defaults by reducing foreign aid ows. Our ndings reject the hypothesis formulated in the theoretical literature that a default leads to a loss of foreign aid for the defaulting country. Creditor countries directly...

This paper explores empirically how the adoption of IMF programs affects sovereign risk over the medium term. We nd that IMF programs signifcantly increase the probability of subsequent sovereign defaults by approximately 1.5 to 2 percentage points. These results cannot be attributed to...

In this paper, we investigate the effects of euro area and US macroeconomic news on financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland (CEEC-3) from 1999 to 2006. Using a GARCH model, we examine the impact of news on daily returns of three-month interest rates, stock market indices,...

The goal of the present paper is two-fold. First, I explore the impact of different trade patterns on industrial specialisation and consequently on business cycle co-movements between and within different regions. Especially, I emphasize industrial specialisation as a result of intra- or...

This paper studies the effects of Federal Reserve communications on US financial market returns from 1998 to 2009 and asks whether a significant change occurred during the financial crisis of August 2007–December 2009. We find, first, that central bank communication moves financial markets in...

The economic effects of federalism are unclear: some papers find that federalism has strong positive effects on a number of economically relevant variables, others find negative effects. The results often crucially hinge upon the proxies for federalism used. In this paper, we critically survey...

We explain Canadian target rate decisions using macroeconomic variables as well as Bank of Canada (BOC) and Federal Reserve (Fed) communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to explain and predict 60 target rate decisions between 1998 and 2006....

Doping seems to be well-organized and inherent in the system of professional cycling. This paper provides a theoretical approach, by using a multi-task (training and doping) principal-agent (team manager and cyclist) model, to illustrate the information asymmetry and conflicting objectives...

Obwohl es dem Konzept des Soft Paternalismus gelang, die Aufmerk-samkeit auf die Bedeutung verhaltensökonomischer Erkenntnisse und die verhaltensbeein-flussende Wirkung von ‚weichen‘ Politikinstrumenten wie Default rules zu lenken, wird ge-zeigt, dass der Soft Paternalismus nur einen...