Personal, or subjective, probabilities are used as inputs to many inferential and decision-making models, and various procedures have been developed for the elicitation of such probabilities. Included among these elicitation procedures are scoring rules, which involve the computation of a score...

This paper considers the maximization of certain equivalent reward generated by a Markov decision process with constant risk sensitivity. First, value iteration is used to optimize possibly time-varying processes of finite duration. Then a policy iteration procedure is developed to find the...

We present a new method for constructing joint probability distributions of continuous random variables using isoprobability contours--sets of points with the same joint cumulative probability. This approach reduces the joint probability assessment into a one-dimensional cumulative probability...