Successfully predicting that something will become a big hit seems impressive. Managers and entrepreneurs who have made successful predictions and have invested money on this basis are promoted, become rich, and may end up on the cover of business magazines. In this paper, we show that an...

This paper explores the relation between decision theoretic conceptions of risk and the conceptions held by executives. It considers recent studies of risk attitudes and behavior among managers against the background of conceptions of risk derived from theories of choice. We conclude that...

Time is one of the more salient constraints on managerial behavior. This constraint may be very taxing in high-velocity environments where managers have to attend to many tasks simultaneously. Earlier work by Radner (1976) proposed models based on notions of the thermostat or "putting out fires"...