Showing 1 - 10 of 97
The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is an important result in statistics and econometrics and econometricians often rely on the CLT for inference in practice. Even though, different conditions apply to different kinds of data, the CLT results are believed to be generally available for a range of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011105012
This article studies a simple, coherent approach for identifying and estimating error correcting vector autoregressive moving average (EC-VARMA) models. Canonical correlation analysis is implemented for both determining the cointegrating rank, using a strongly consistent method, and identifying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011085533
In this paper Kuznets' U-Curve hypothesis is tested on two unbalanced panel data sets of 47 and 62 countries, for the period 1970-93, using two-way fixed and random effects models. Several competing model specifications are estimated and the one best fitting the data is selected by appropriate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005581110
This article derives analystic finite sample approximations to the bias and standard error of a class of statistics which test the hypothesis of no serial correlation in market returns. They offer an alternative to both the widely used Monte Carlo approach for calculating the bias, as well as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005581156
In this paper, an adaptive smoothing forecasting approach based on evolutionary spectra as developed by Rao and Shapiro (1970) is applied to the 3003 time series of various types and lengths used in the M3-Competition (Makridakis and Hibon, 2000). Comparisons of out-of-sample forecasts are made...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149078
We evaluate the performance of various methods for forecasting tourism demand. The data used include 380 monthly series, 427 quarterly series and 530 yearly series, all supplied to us by tourism bodies or by academics from previous tourism forecasting studies. The forecasting methods implemented...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005427605
We review the past 25 years of time series research that has been published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985; International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During this period, over one third of all papers published in these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005427625
The state space approach to modelling univariate time series is now widely used both in theory and in applications. However, the very richness of the framework means that quite different model formulations are possible, even when they purport to describe the same phenomena. In this paper, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005427626
A new approach is proposed for forecasting a time series with multiple seasonal patterns. A state space model is developed for the series using the single source of error approach which enables us to develop explicit models for both additive and multiplicative seasonality. Parameter estimates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005427630
We discuss and compare measures of accuracy of univariate time series forecasts. The methods used in the M-competition and the M3-competition, and many of the measures recommended by previous authors on this topic, are found to be inadequate, and many of them are degenerate in commonly occurring...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005427631