Several authors have postulated econometric models for exchange rates restricted to lie within known target zones. However, it is not uncommon to observe exchange rate data with known limits that are not fully 'credible'; that is, where some of the observations fall outside the stated range. An...

This paper examines real exchange rate responses to shocks in exchange rate determinants for fourteen Asian developing countries. The analysis is based on a panel structural vector error correction model, and the shocks are identified using sign and zero restrictions. We find that trade...

This paper investigates international responses of key macroeconomic variables, particularly real exchange rates, to simultaneous shocks to productivity in the traded sector in eight Asian emerging and developing countries. We use panel estimation techniques to construct component submodels in a...

In recent years, analysis of financial time series has focused largely on data related to market trading activity. Apart from modelling the conditional variance of returns within the GARCH family of models, presently attention has also been devoted to other market variables, especially volumes,...

A crucially important advantage of the semiparametric regression approach to the nonlinear autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model developed in Wongsaart et al. (2011), i.e. the so-called Semiparametric ACD (SEMI-ACD) model, is the fact that its estimation method does not require a...

We examine the response of real exchange rates to shocks in real exchange rate determinants, a monetary policy shock, and a fiscal policy shock in 30 countries over the period 1970-2008. The country set is divided into 4 groups - European, developed-country, Asian developing-country, and non...

This paper investigates empirically the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis (BSH) using annual data over 1970-2008 from 33 countries grouped into developed and developing countries. The innovative feature of our study is that we introduce a new approach for classifying traded and nontraded industries....

We evaluate the performance of various methods for forecasting tourism demand. The data used include 380 monthly series, 427 quarterly series and 530 yearly series, all supplied to us by tourism bodies or by academics from previous tourism forecasting studies. The forecasting methods implemented...

We review the past 25 years of time series research that has been published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985; International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During this period, over one third of all papers published in these...

The state space approach to modelling univariate time series is now widely used both in theory and in applications. However, the very richness of the framework means that quite different model formulations are possible, even when they purport to describe the same phenomena. In this paper, we...