This article presents recent results regarding the econometric approach to economic forecasting. We aim to establish here what constitutes a "good" forecast. A forecast taxonomy helps understand how to obtain forecasts that prove robust to the most detrimental source of error: structural breaks...

The tightening cycle is going on, but bonds markets have unexpectedly gone in the opposite direction and imbalances have further aggravated. This is a cause of concern for Central Banks, which have to slow down growth without derailing it, while oil prices are climbing to new heights. The...

In 2004 fiscal policy has reversed its course turning to neutrality in the euro area, thus resulting in a deterioration of the government deficit to 2.9% of GDP and in the breaching of the 3% limit of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) by France, Germany, Italy and Greece. Founded on a...

The reduction in the French trade balance observed since late 2001 has partly been caused by the weakness of the domestic tourism sector. Among potential explications thereof are the appreciation of euro; the post 9/11 trauma, and a possible decrease in the appeal of the French territory. We...