We identify the cyclical turning points of 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (i) Cyclical phase shifts are highly concentrated around the aggregate turning points; (ii) In contrast to the conventional notion of a ‘sudden stop and slow recovery,’ troughs...

We construct a family model of labor supply that features adjustment along both the in- tensive and extensive margin. Intensive margin adjustment is restricted to two values: full time work and part-time work. Using simulated data from the steady state of the calibrated model, we examine whether...

"This paper assesses biases in policy predictions due to the lack of invariance of "structural'' parameters in representative-agent models. We simulate data under various fiscal policy regimes from a heterogeneous-agents economy with incomplete asset markets and indivisible labor supply....