Will the US and other economies slip into recessions this year? Which economies will decouple from a global slowdown? The authors suggest that the excessive caution shown by private sector forecasters limits the usefulness of their forecasts in answering these questions. Using growth forecasts...

Two salie nt features of growth forecasts are discussed. First, recessions generally arrive before the forecast. Slowdowns are predicted but forecasters are unable or unwilling to call recessions. Second, private sector forecasts tend to be similar to those of official agencies. Some tips for...

Forecasters are currently echoing Chauncey Gardner’s words that “There will be growth in the springâ€. Or certainly by the summer. Are such forecasts credible? Yes. This article presents evidence that private sector forecasters have done a reasonably good job of forecasting...