In this paper, we consider new bifurcation phenomena in a class of stochastic dynamic macroeconometric models as represented by the stochastic model developed by Leeper and Sims (1994). This model serves as a prototype that could be suitable for monetary policy analysis although the complexity...

I use the automated search algorithm to address practical issues that arise in estimating income and price elasticities for U.S. trade in services: specification of dynamics, specification of the search strategy, simultaneity biases, and aggregation biases. Specifically, starting from a general,...

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups - industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups - industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...