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We present the first calibration of quantum decision theory (QDT) to an empirical data set. The data comprise 91 …. The prediction of choice reversal is then refined by introducing heterogeneity between decision makers through a … differentiation of the population into two similar sized groups in terms of "over-confident" and "contrarian" decision makers. This …
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We investigate various statistical methods for forecasting risky choices and identify important decision predictors …
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Turnovsky (1995) derives in a continuous-time model of a decentralized economy that the correct specification of the firm's objective function is to maximize the initial value of its outstanding securities. The firm value is the discounted flow of real earnings. For the discrete-time version of...
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We argue that buyout waves form in response to fluctuations in aggregate discount rates. In our model, discount rates alter the present value of cash flow improvements and the illiquidity premium demanded by buyout investors. We confirm our predictions empirically. Overall deal activity varies...
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"It is well known that augmenting a standard linear regression model with variables that are correlated with the error term but uncorrelated with the original regressors will increase asymptotic efficiency of the original coefficients. We argue that in the context of predicting excess returns,...
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