This study analyses the transmission of monetary policy in Germany for the EMS period in the framework of a structural vector error correction model (S-VECM) analysis. Three stable cointegration relationships are found: a money demand relation, an interest rate spread and a stationary real...

In this study we build two forecasting models to predict inflation for the Netherlands and for the euro area. Inflation is the yearly change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The models provide point forecasts and prediction intervals for both the components of the HICP and the...

In this paper various Value-at-Risk techniques are applied tot the Dutch stock market index AEX and to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. the main conclusions are: (1) Changing volatility over time is the most important characteristic of stock returns when modelling value-at-risk; (2) For high...

In this report we examine time-varying correlations of asset returns using the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) models, recently proposed by Engle (2002), that are estimated by a two-step procedure. First, we conclude that correlations vary considerably over time. Secondly, the conditional...

In this paper various Value-at-Risk techniques are applied to the Dutch stock market index AEX and to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The main conclusion are: (1) Changing volatility over time is the most important characteristic of stock returns when modelling value-at-risk; (2) For low...

This paper focuses on the interaction between regulation and competition in an industrial organisation model. We analyse how capital requirements affect the profitability of two banks that compete as Cournet duopolists on a market for loans. Bank management of both banks choose optimal levels of...

One popular view on the current strength of the US dollar is that the higher growth in the US compared to Europe has stimulated foreigners to buy American assets, thereby driving up the exchange rate. In this paper a modified portfolio balance model is presented, in which it is shown that the...

In this study we build two forecasting models to predict inflation for the Netherlands and for the euro area. Inflation is the yearly change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The models provide point forecasts and prediction intervals for both the subcomponents of the HICP and...

In this paper, the monetary transmission mechanism within the European Monetary Union is investigated. The impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions of a structural vector error correction model (SVECM) are compared with those of a New Keynesian theoretical model. The...