The exact linear dependency among age, period and birth cohort makes it impossible to recover the true parameters of Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models. We then propose to extract reliable information from APC models via the Shapley decomposition, a model-agnostic procedure from game theory that...

We propose an expectations formation mechanism (EFM) aimed to explain the median – hence lay – forecaster’s year-ahead inflation predictions. The EFM is a time-varying combination of long-run expectations, current inflation and uncertainty with weights naively calibrated according to...