This new edition reflects recent advances in time-series econometrics, such as out-of-sample forecasting techniques, non-linear time-series models, Monte Carlo analysis, and bootstrapping. Numerous examples from fields ranging from agricultural economics to transnational terrorism illustrate...

This paper explores the behavior of real commodity prices over a 50–year period. Attention is given to how the fundamentals for various commodity prices have changed with a special emphasis on behavior since the mid 2000s. To identify changing commodity price fundamentals we estimate...