Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and financial links among countries. This work aims to analyze the possible effects of a potential economic growth downturn or one large negative shock in China, Germany and United...

This paper investigates whether there is evidence of structural change in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates. Multivariate cointegration techniques are used to verify this evidence. Two econometrics models are estimated. The first one is a Vector Autoregressive Model with Error...

The rational expectation hypothesis is widely used in finance and macroeconomics. A natural research question comprises investigating whether models that use this hypothesis can fit the data well. Researchers have been developing econometric procedures to test rational expectation models....

This paper aims to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for the Brazilian economy. The equilibrium exchange rate is defined as the level of exchange rate that guarantees the stability of the net foreign asset position over time. An econometric model is estimated using a Vector Error...

The issue of 'trade and exchange rate misalignments' is being discussed at the G20, IMF and WTO, following an initiative by Brazil. The main purpose of this paper is to apply the methodology developed by the authors to exam the impacts of misalignment on tariffs in order to analyze the impacts...

This work aims to compare the forecast efficiency of different types of methodologies applied to Brazilian consumer inflation (IPCA). We will compare forecasting models using disaggregated and aggregated data from IPCA over twelve months ahead. We used IPCA in a monthly basis, over the period...

Assessing real effective exchange rate equilibrium is a challenging task. There is no consensus in the literature on which methodologies and norms apply best to tackle real effective exchange rate misalignment estimation. The novelty of our paper consists of showing that different methodologies...

This study analyses the evolution of household income inequality in Brazil from 1977 to 2013 using the Brazilian National Household Survey data at aggregated and regional levels. Four income share quantiles are analysed: Top 1%, Top 10%, Bottom 10%, and Bottom 50%. The novelty of our study lies...