We provide a conceptual framework to analysis counterfactual scenarios using macroeconometric models. We consider UK entry to the euro. We derive conditional probability distributions for the difference between the future realisations of variables of interest subject to UK entry restrictions...

This paper provides a synthesis and further development of a global modelling approach introduced in Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner (2004), where country specific models in the form of VARX* structures are estimated relating a vector of domestic variables to their foreign counterparts and then...

This paper considers the determinants of military spending, building on an emerging literature that estimates military expenditure demand functions in cross-section and panel data, incorporating ‘arms-race’ type effects. It updates Dunne and Perlo-Freeman (2003b) using the SIPRI military...

It has been widely argued that the production of illegal drugs, particularly cocaine, has financed guerrilla activity in Colombia. This paper uses quarterly time-series data for Colombia 1994-2005 to examine the interaction between legal agricultural production, illegal agricultural production...

This paper considers the determinants of military spending, building on an emerging literature that estimates military expenditure demand functions in cross-section and panel data, incorporating ‘arms-race’ type effects. It updates Dunne and Perlo-Freeman (2003b) using the SIPRI military...

This paper has considers the interpretation of the empirical results of the developing literature on the demand for military spending that specifies a general model with arms race and spillover effects and estimates it on cross-section and panel data. It questions whether it is meaningful to...