This paper develops more accurate and robust baseline sales estimates (sales in the absence of price promotion) using a dynamic linear model (DLM) enhanced with a multiple structural change model (MSCM). We first discuss the value of utilizing aggregated (chain-level) vs. disaggregated...

This paper presents the Theory of Retailer Price Promotions (TRPP) for consumer packed goods (CPGs). Specifically, the theory states that incremental retail sales generated by promotional price discounts are entirely incremental to the promoting manufacturer, the promoting retailer and the...

For marketers and sales professionals, estimating price elasticities of their products is crucial for understanding sales and setting pricing strategies. Yet, given the variety of possible econometric models, the central question that arises as which one of them would be the most appropriate for...

This paper studies the attitude of non-professional investors towards financial losses and their decisions concerning wealth allocation among consumption, risky, and risk-free financial assets. We employ a two-dimensional utility setting in which both consumption and financial wealth...

Regulators in emerging markets are increasingly curtailing the practice of foreigncurrency lending. In such a move Turkish regulatory authorities banned foreign currencylending to households in 2009. This paper examines the evolution of financial dollarization inTurkey in the 2002-2009 period by...

This paper develops a more accurate and robust baseline sales (sales in the absence of price promotion) using Dynamic Linear Models and a Multiple Structural Change Model (DLM/MSCM). We first discuss the value of utilizing aggregated (chain-level) vs. disaggregated (store-level) point-of-sale...

In dollarized financial systems, there exists a currency mismatch risk that could lead to financial crises. Central Banks in such economies have to adjust their foreign currency policies accordingly. This paper estimates the probability of Central Bankers' intervention in the foreign currency...