In this paper we estimate the impact of global uncertainty shocks –identified as sudden jumps in U.S. stock market volatility– on certain sectors of the Chilean economy. Using a reduced-form VAR approach, we estimate that uncertainty shocks generate a fall in GDP of 1.7% with respect to...

This paper develops two models of fishery firms in order to understand and estimate the effect of global warming (CG) on their value. CG is defined as an additional increase in the average thermal temperature caused by CO2 emissions. Two effects on the biomass stem from this temperature increase...

This paper compares the out-of-sample error of two forecasting methods for Chile’s GDP. The first method forecasts the aggregate GDP, while the second aggregates the forecasts of the supply-side components. As forecasting method we use the automatic model selection contained in the seasonal...

Schwarz. In this paper I evaluate the predictive ability of the Akaike and Schwarz information criteria using autoregressive integrated moving average models, with sectoral data of Chilean GDP. In terms of root mean square error, and after the estimation of more than a million models, the...