We present a synthesis of all the available empirical evidence in the light of recent theoretical developments for the existence of characteristic log-periodic signatures of growing bubbles in a variety of markets including 8 unrelated crashes from 1929 to 1998 on stock markets as diverse as the...

Twenty-two significant bubbles followed by large crashes or by severe corrections in the Argentinian, Brazilian, Chilean, Mexican, Peruvian, Venezuelan, Hong-Kong, Indonesian, Korean, Malaysian, Philippine and Thai stock markets indices are identified and analysed for log-periodic signatures...

Contrary to common belief, both the Earth's human population and its economic output have grown faster than exponential, i.e., in a super-Malthusian mode, for most of the known history. These growth rates are compatible with a spontaneous singularity occurring at the same critical time 2052±10...

We propose that large stock market crashes are analogous to critical points studied in statistical physics with log-periodic correction to scaling. We extend our previous renormalization group model of stock market prices prior to and after crashes (D. Sornette, A. Johansen, J.P. Bouchaud, J....

We follow up our previous conjecture that large stock market crashes are analogous to critical points in statistical physics. The term “critical” refers to regimes of cooperative behavior, such as magnetism at the Curie temperature and liquid–gas transitions, and is characterized by the...

We describe an experiment on the dynamical response of the internaut population surfing the World-Wide-Web to a Dirac-like perturbation, specifically how the popularity of a web site evolves and relaxes as a function of time in response to the publication of a notice/advertisement in a...

We study a rational expectation model of bubbles and crashes. The model has two components: (1) our key assumption is that a crash may be caused by local self-reinforcing imitation between noise traders. If the tendency for noise traders to imitate their nearest neighbors increases up to a...

We present an analysis of the time behavior of the S&P 500 (Standard and Poors) New York stock exchange index before and after the October 1987 market crash and identify precursory patterns as well as aftershock signatures and characteristic oscillations of relaxation. Combined, they all suggest...

In a series of papers based on analogies with statistical physics models, we have proposed that most financial crashes are the climax of so-called log-periodic power law signatures (LPPL) associated with speculative bubbles (Sornette and Johansen, 1998; Johansen and Sornette, 1999; Johansen et al. 1999;...