The authors propose a short run model for the monetary transmission mechanism in witch the output gap is modelled as an unobserved variable. By estimating this model using maximum likelihood on a Kalman Filter, the authors find an estimate of the unobserved output gap as well as its estimation...

Using the Johansen's cointegration techique we develop an empirical model of the nominal and real exchange rates of Colombia. We find that the nominal exchange rate is deremined by the nominal variables and the fundamentals and that the real exchange rate is determined by the fundamentals but...

The paper provides a model of the banking firm in the macroeconomic intended to explain the determination of the spread between the banks' loan and deposit rates. The model focuses on the resource cost of capital in the detrmination of the spread. A statistical result confirms the prediction of...

Colombia has been on a steady disinflation path since the early 1990s. The paper presents a model of the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in Colombia, in order to examine this disinflation. The model is used to describe the evolution of inflation in response to shocks to the terms of...

Sudden stops seem to create the perfect environment for disinflation, especially when central banks defend the exchange rate by increasing interest rates. We propose a variation of the output gap model that incorporates the sudden stop shock. The use of the model in policy analysis shows that...

The authors propose a short run model for the monetary transmission mechanism in which the output gap is model as an unobserved variable. By estimating this model using maximum likelihood on a Kalman Filter, the authors find an estimate of the unobserved output gap as well as its estimation...

The authors propose a short run model for the monetary transmission mechanism in which the output gap is modelled as an unobserved variable. By estimating this model using maximum likelihood on a Kalman Filter, the authors find an estimate of the unobserved output gap as well as its estimation...

We examine how the predictive power of term spreads as predictors of economic recessions in Europe and the US has changed in the last two decades. In particular, we focus on the power of domestic and of US and German term spreads to predict real economic activity. Using a battery of...

El Banco de la República (Banco Central de Colombia)obtuvo independencia formal del gobierno, primero, a través de la Nueva Constitución expedida a mediados de 1991 y luego, mediante la Ley del Banco de diceimbre de 1992. El próposito de este documento es describir el papel del Banco Central...