In this paper, I numerically simulate the path of economy in an economic depression. It is not easy to perform a numerical simulation of the path to a steady state if households are assumed to behave by generating rational expectations. It is much easier, however, if households are assumed to...

In this study, we evaluate the effectiveness of three popular econometric models ARIMA, MIDAS, and VAR for forecasting quarterly GDP in Madagascar. Our analysis reveals that ARIMA provides the most accurate forecasts among the three models, indicating its superiority in predicting the...

This paper studies the links between the descriptions of macroeconomic variables and statistical moments of market trade, price, and return. The randomness of market trade values and volumes during the averaging interval Δ results in the random properties of price and return. We describe how...

The following paper raises the question of monetary policy’s effectiveness in emerging countries during the three phases of global excess liquidity. To answer it, our analysis is divided in two parts. The first one focuses on the concept of global excess liquidity and identifies when it occurs...

Thomas Piketty stated that widening economic inequality is an inevitable consequence of free-market capitalism, in which the rate of return (r) on capital (K) exceeds the rate of economic growth (g): r g. Five System Dynamics models are developed to understand the underlying structure that...

In the article, we review recent literature on fiscal sustainability with particular reference to problems that are specific to transition countries. While the original literature on fiscal sustainability is chiefly focused on industrial countries there are by now few works that have focused on...

Revolutions do not consolidate until they blend with the establishment to create a new world. Keynes understood it, and that is why he titled his masterwork The General Theory. But he was unsuccessful in the blending. In 2020-21, it is argued in here, we all follow Keynes, but with insufficient...

This paper investigates the fair share of GDP required to mitigate climate change costs, using an extended DICE model. A dedicated fund, supplied annually by a fixed fraction of GDP, is introduced to cover abatement and damage costs. Numerical analysis reveals that a funding rate of 2.4% of GDP...

Informed by the recent run of rising and persistent inflation in Nigeria, which puts headline and food inflation at 28.2% and 32.8%, respectively, and its attendant consequences on macroeconomic performance, this study makes a case for inflation targeting as an alternative monetary policy...

There has been a deep-rooted view that economic rents are the main cause of high levels of economic inequality, but if economic rents are temporary, they may not be the cause. By employing numerical simulations, I show that even if economic rents are temporary, they can generate a high level of...