The signals approach was applied to 24 of the indicators around the dates of the 29 banking and the 87 currency crises. In what follows, we first compare our results for the 15 original indicators in Kaminsky and Reinhart (1996) to those presented in that study. This exercise assesses the...

In this study, we begin by assessing the ability of sovereign credit ratings to anticipate crises. In addition, given the wave of sovereign credit ratings downgrades that have followed the crises in Asia, we investigate formally the extent to which credit ratings are reactive. Along the way, we...

Predicting the timing of currency and banking crises is likely to remain an elusive task for academics, financial market participants, and policymakers. Few foresaw the Asian crises and fewer still could have imagined their severity. However, recent events have highlighted the importance of...

In focusing on the 24 month window prior to the onset of the crisis, the criteria for ranking the indicators presented in our related work does not distinguish between a signal given 12 months prior to the crisis and one given one month prior to the crisis. In what follows we examine this issue,...

Given the rising importance of non-financial corporate overseas debt issuance in the overall international capital flow activities, this paper tries to understand the determinants of corporate overseas bond issuance in 32 countries during the sample period 1993-2015. The results suggest that the...

Predicting the timing of currency and banking crises is likely to remain an elusive task for academics, financial market participants, and policymakers. Few foresaw the Asian crises and fewer still could have imagined their severity. However, recent events have highlighted the importance of...

The Chinese state has integrated its economy into the neoliberal globalization of trade and investment without neoliberalizing its own financial markets, and to ensure stability, the state applies strict controls on interest rates, capital movement and the value of RMB. The Chinese state...

This study seeks to address a number of rising policy concerns from the aftermath of the recent subprime crisis. Did foreign bank lending decline sharply and transmit the financial shocks from the advanced economies to the SEACEN emerging markets? Was the decline driven by the drying-up in...

After the beginning of the euro area, countries in its periphery engaged in weighty borrowing from foreign private investors, allowing domestic spending to outpace incomes. Now, these countries face debt crises reflecting a loss of creditor confidence in the sustainability of their finances from...