I generate priors for a VAR from four competing models of economic fluctuations: a standard RBC model, Fisher’s (2006) investment-specific technology shocks model, an RBC model with capital adjustment costs and habit formation, and a sticky price model with an unaccommodating monetary...

For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

In this paper we show that survey-based-expectations about the future evolution of the Chilean exchange rate have the ability to predict the returns of the six primary non-ferrous metals: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. Predictability is also found for returns of the London Metal...

A large literature studies the information contained in national-level economic indicators, such as financial and aggregate economic activity variables, for forecasting and nowcasting U.S. business cycle phases (expansions and recessions.) In this paper, we investigate whether there is...

In this paper we show that the MSCI ACWI Metals and Mining Index has the ability to predict base metal prices. We use both in-sample and out-of-sample exercises to conduct such examination. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the present-value model for stock-price...

The Long-Wave theories of Nikolai Kondratiev and others claim to find mathematic waves in economic and other social data which are at present in dispute. Currently the theory is considered outside the scope of mainstream economics under several rationales. Despite the lack of mainstream...

The information, including the knowledge in the science, business and society, is being generated, transmitted, received and analyzed by the humans in the various countries over the centuries. The information is a most valuable asset in possession by the economic agents in the modern economies...

The information, including the knowledge in the science, business and society, is being generated, transmitted, received and analyzed by the humans in the various countries for many centuries. The generated information can be structured, coded, stored and retrieved, representing a most valuable...

The research article aims to create a general fundamental theory on the Digital DNA of the modern digital creative economy of the scale and scope. In the frames of our theory, we define the Digital DNA of the modern digital creative economy of the scale and scope, making the following...

The research article aims to create a general fundamental theory on the Digital DNA of the modern digital creative economy of the scale and scope. In the frames of our theory, we define the Digital DNA of the modern digital creative economy of the scale and scope, making the following...