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Scientific and technological advances are resulting in improved forecasts of risk, but do better forecasts result in … better risk management? I investigate to what extent the improvements in lead time of winter weather advisories affect the … that receiving winter advisories earlier reduces crash risk significantly. I also examine two potential mechanisms that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015268547
Advances in predictive technologies are improving forecasts of risk, but do better forecasts result in better risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015269118
This paper presents a game theoretic morphological analysis of the U.S. environmental authorities’ (i.e., EPA and DOJ) behavioural mechanisms, based on strategic interactions among the players. The models explore the role of discretion that such authorities enjoy, either in deciding how to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015239615
We build a workable game of common-property resource extraction under rational Bayesian learning about the renewal prospects of a resource. We uncover the impact of exogenously shifting the prior beliefs of each player on the response functions of others. What we find about the role of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015224615
certainty, risk, or uncertainty, the software outputs match with the results of actual highway programming at least 85 percent … physical highway assets or system usage only under certainty or risk, this research focuses on the management of an entire … highway network that also incorporates tradeoff decisions involving uncertainty. Systemwide multiattribute utility functions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009430725
two questions from the decision making literature. First, what determines how much uncertainty a firm has when investing … data, support was found for the Bounded Rationality hypothesis; firms have less uncertainty about an acquisition … hypothesis; firms whose prior machines perform below aspiration levels seek more uncertainty in their subsequent acquisitions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009438770
Energy prices have exhibited significant volatility in recent years. For example, natural gas pricesranged from $4 to $15 per MM BTU's in calendar years 2005 through 2011. Future prices are uncertainbut are likely to retain a high level of volatility. This volatility complicates analysis of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009464935
risk, andinformation uncertainty.An integrated economic/epidemic evaluation is done to examine the impact of variouscontrol … reducing strategy.Another issue related to risk and uncertainty is the response of consumers and domesticmarkets to the … a smaller standard deviation of loss which would indicate it isa risk reducing strategy.Risk in foreign animal disease …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009464961
of uncertainty are therefore tackled implicitly by discounting the expected value of the cash flows at a risk … weaknesses within the Internet companies’ context. One of these weaknesses is tackling the uncertainty that characterize future …-adjusted interest rate. However, under uncertainty, future cash flows of these companies can no longer be characterized by a single …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009465487
trading frictions to motivate the issue of risk-spreading ‘bundled’ debt are more promising for money creation, although they … impact of uncertainty and failed expectations induced by money leads to specific patterns of economic disruption. These …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009465939