We use dynamic factors and neural network models to identify current and past states (instead of future) of the US business cycle. In the first step, we reduce noise in data by using a moving average filter. Then, dynamic factors are extracted from a large-scale data set consisted of more than...

In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...

We study the economics and finance scholars’ reaction to the 2008 financial crisis using machine learning language analyses methods of Latent Dirichlet Allocation and dynamic topic modelling algorithms, to analyze the texts of 14,270 NBER working papers covering the 1999–2016 period. We find...

In this paper we examine house price synchronization in 15 global cities using real house price data from 1995:Q1-2020:Q2. We find that although there is evidence for bilateral positive phase synchronization, there is no evidence for an integrated global housing market for our sample of cities....

We address the problem of selecting the common factors that are relevant for forecasting macroeconomic variables. In economic forecasting using diffusion indexes the factors are ordered, according to their importance, in terms of relative variability, and are the same for each variable to...

On the basis of five balance variables in bank balances (total assets, deposits, capital, operating income, and loans), the Hirschman–Herfindahl indices for period 2016–2021 are calculated. The indices values are decomposed by the Bajo and Salas approach, based on the fact that the...

The Common Correlated Effects (CCE) approach by Pesaran2006 is a popular method for estimating panel data models with interactive effects. Due to its simplicity, i.e. unobserved common factors are approximated with cross-section averages of the observables, the estimator is highly flexible and...

Controlling ecological deterioration is critical for the well-being of current and future generations, as it ensures a sustainable environment that promotes health, productivity, and the general quality of life. This study investigates the interplay between innovation, economic growth, and...

The aim of this analysis is to predict whether an National Basketball Association (NBA) player will be active in the league for at least 10 years so as to be qualified for NBA's full retirement scheme which allows for the maximum benefit payable by law. We collected per game statistics for...

Russian. В статье рассматривается проблема определения степени монополизации страхового сектора Сербии (без Косово и Метохии) в период 2010-2023 гг. Исследование...