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We document that the implied volatility skew of S&P 500 index puts is non-decreasing in the disaster index and risk-neutral variance, contrary to the implications of a broad class of no-arbitrage models. The key to the puzzle lies in recognizing that, as the disaster risk increases, customers...
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is pervasive in the empirical results. In this work I revisit, in face of model uncertainty, the role of (i) oil supply … model as given, and ignoring the problem of estimating overly optimistic confidence sets. This means that model uncertainty …
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