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This paper builds on a simple unified representation of shrinkage Bayes estimators based on hierarchical Normal-Gamma priors. Various popular penalized least squares estimators for shrinkage and selection in regression models can be recovered using this single hierarchical Bayes formulation....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013126942
We propose a method to incorporate information from Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models into Dynamic Factor Analysis. The method combines a procedure previously applied for Bayesian Vector Autoregressions and a Gibbs Sampling approach for Dynamic Factor Models. The factors in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003923369
This paper proposes a simple technical approach for the analytical derivation of Point-in-Time PD (probability of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012856161
Emerging-market economies have become increasingly important in driving global GDP growth over the past 10 to 15 years. This has made timely and accurate assessment of current and future economic activity in emerging markets important for policy-makers not only in these countries but also in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374171
The term now-casting is a contraction for now and forecasting and has been used for a long-time in meteorology and … models that formalize key features of how market participants and policy makers read macroeconomic data releases in real time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013080088
design a statistical model which produces a sequence of nowcasts in relation to the real time releases of various economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135504
design a statistical model which produces a sequence of nowcasts in relation to the real time releases of various economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008771794
We propose a new approach to mixed-frequency regressions in a high-dimensional environment that resorts to Group Lasso penalization and Bayesian techniques for estimation and inference. To improve the sparse recovery ability of the model, we also consider a Group Lasso with a spike-and-slab...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890433
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014288359
the aggregate by using time-varying weights on the component forecast densities. In our application, we use the … combining the evidence from 11 disaggregate series outperforms an aggregate autoregressive benchmark, and an aggregate time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138719