In risk management, the credit risk and required capital associated with mortgage assets is often estimated through stress testing where the house price path is an important determinant of the severity of the stress test. Specifically, the extent of credit-related losses is a function of how far...

We describe an empirical approach to generating plausible historically‐based interest rate shocks, which can be applied to any market environment and readily linked to movements in other key risk factors. Our approach is based upon yield curve parameterization and requires a parsimonious yet...

This paper provides the first wide-scale analysis of property renovation bias in repeat-sales house price indices across a multitude of U.S. geographies. Property improvements frequently lead to positive quality drift. In local markets, omitting information on property improvements can bias...

We make two contributions to the study of house price index and mortgage credit modeling accuracy. First, we assess the predictive power of house price indices calculated at different levels of geographic aggregation. Lower levels of aggregation offer superior fit when appreciation rates vary...

Assessments of market risk for economic or regulatory capital typically involve calculating a portfolio's sensitivity to key risk factor movements. Historically, practitioners have focused on two classical sources of risk, adverse changes in interest rates and volatility. As stress testing has...

Mortgage credit risk measurement hinges on the choice of a house price stress path, which is used to project loan losses and determine financial capital requirements. House price paths are commonly constructed at national or state levels and shock scenarios are created to mimic historical...