Beliefs about the arrival time of a vaccine have a large effect on optimal social distancing in an SIR model, though the relationship is complex. A higher mean vaccine arrival time can increase or decrease optimal distancing depending on assumptions. We analytically demonstrate two channels that...

Money laundering is the process of moving proceeds from illicit activities into the legal economy. We develop a monopolistic competition model incorporating a criminal enterprise which chooses between laundering through offshore financial investments or by acquiring legitimate establishments,...

Proceeds from illicit activities percolate into the legal economy through several channels. We exploit international regulations targeting money laundering via the financial sector to identify the flows of “dirty money” into legitimate establishments: business-based money laundering (BBML)....

Economic growth in the 19th and 20th centuries, following the Industrial Revolutions, was much faster than in preceding centuries. This unprecedented global growth coincided with the global proliferation of democracy, with some evidence for bidirectional causation. Macroeconomic forecasts have...