From a banking supervisory perspective, this paper analyses aspects of market risk of an aggregated trading portfolio comprised of the trading books of 11 German banks with a regulatory approved internal market risk model. Based on real, clean profit and loss data and Value-at-Risk estimates of...

The Value at Risk of a portfolio differs from the sum of the Values at Risk of the portfolio's components. In this paper, we analyze the problem of how a single economic risk figure for the Value at Risk of a hypothetical portfolio composed of different commercial banks might be obtained for a...

The situation of a limited availability of historical data is frequently encountered in portfolio risk estimation, especially in credit risk estimation. This makes it, for example, difficult to find temporal structures with statistical significance in the data on the single asset level. By...

Die Auswirkungen ausgewählter Wirkungskanäle auf die Veränderung des Zinsergebnisses für das restliche Jahr 2024 der deutschen Banken sollen abgeschätzt werden. Dabei werden die Effekte durch Umschichtungen von Sichteinlagen in Termineinlagen sowie Preiseffekte und Volumeneffekte durch...

Understanding the impact of changing interest rates onto banks' net interest margin is of central importance for various stakeholders. The primary focus lies often on changes in the interest level. However, changes in the steepness are a second driver which also significantly impacts banks'...

We analyse the ftnancial forecasts small and medium-sized German banks provided in several waves of a quantitative survey, called LIRES, and compare them with the results the banks actually realized. Based on this unique data set, we ftnd that the predictions are relevant, especially concerning...

We introduce an empirical approach to studying credit risk in the corporate loan portfolio. First, historical adverse scenarios for loss rates are identified at sector level. Second, we estimate the empirical association between loan losses and economic growth and then apply it to a scenario of...

Die Entwicklung des Zinseinkommens der Banken in Deutschland wird in Szenarien abgeschätzt, und zwar für die Jahre 2023 und 2024. Es zeigt sich, dass das Zinseinkommen im Basis-Szenario im Vergleich zum Jahr 2022 zunimmt, wenn man berücksichtigt, dass die Banken an Zinsaufwendungen sparen,...

Es wird ein empirischer Ansatz vorgestellt, wie die Kreditrisiken im Unternehmenskreditportfolio untersucht werden können. Dabei werden Stress-Szenarien für Verlustquoten auf der Ebene der einzelnen Sektoren historisch ermittelt. Alternativ schätzen wir die empirische Assoziation zwischen...

Using data from a quantitative survey of German banks at three points in time (2015, 2017 and 2019), we analyze the impact of changes in the interest rate level on banks' net interest income and the countermeasures they take. A decline in the interest rate level has a more negative impact on net...