This paper documents a comparative application of algorithms to deal with the problem of missing values in higher frequency data sets. We refer to Swiss business tendency survey (BTS) data which are conducted in both monthly and quarterly frequency, where an information sub-set is collected at...

Der Preisindex der Bruttowertschöpfung – Deflator der BWS – ist ein impliziter Inflationsindikator im Rahmen der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen (VGR). Im vergangenen Jahr hat er sich um 5,5 % erhöht, das ist der höchste Anstieg seit der Deutschen Einheit. Klaus Abberger und...

Der Index der Konsumentenstimmung zählt seit 1972 zu den wichtigen Konjunkturindikatoren in der Schweiz. Kürzlich wurde diese Erhebung einer Überarbeitung unterzogen. Seit Januar 2023 wird parallel zur bestehenden eine Befragung in neuem Erhebungsdesign durchgeführt. Zusätzlich wurde der...

Results from business tendency surveys are often used to construct leading indicators. The indicators are then, for example, employed to forecast GDP growth. In this article more detailed results of business tendency surveys are used to forecast quarter-onquarter GDP growth. The target series is...

Business tendency surveys are a commonly accepted instrument for the assessment ofthe current business cycle course. Most of these surveys rely on qualitative questionsabout the current situation of the firms and about heir expectations for the next months. This paper analyzes whether...

Investment in equipment and machinery is a very important component of GDP. In this paper we examine whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for a timely assessment of current investment behavior. In addition we investigate whether the survey results are helpful for...

Das ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung in München führt seit seiner Gründung im Jahr1949 regelmäßige Unternehmensbefragungen durch. Bisher bestand kein institutionalisierterDatenzugang zu den Mikrodaten für Forscher außerhalb des Institutes. Die Mikrodatenwerden nunmehr im ifo...

Business tendency surveys are a popular tool for the timely assessment of the business cycle, used by economists and by the public. This article considers survey results in the manufacturing sector in more detail and looks into the question of, whether the analysis of branch results leads to an...

Business climate indicators are used to receive early signals for turning points in the general business cycle. Therefore methods for the detection of turning points in time series are required. Estimations of slopes of a smooth component in the data can be calculated with local polynomial...

For a bivariate data set the dependence structure can not only be measured globally, for example with the Bravais-Pearson correlation coefficient, but the dependence structure can also be analyzed locally. In this article the exploration of dependencies in the tails of the bivariate distribution...