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of the modern business cycle: financial-crisis recessions are more costly than normal recessions in terms of lost output …; and for both types of recession, more credit-intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions and slower …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010318835
In this paper, we develop a financial stress index for France that can be used as a real-time composite indicator for the state of financial stability in France. We take 17 financial variables from different market segments and extract a common stress component using a dynamic approximate factor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292635
Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328746
which are typically followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. Housing finance has come to play a central role in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420692
The financial crisis 2008-2009 and the European sovereign debt crisis have shown that stress on financial markets is important for analyzing and forecasting economic activity. Since financial stress is not directly observable but is presumably reflected in many financial market variables, it is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010286071
adoption of these policies, and the severity of the economic recessions. One year after the original ex-ante calibration, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013466708
This paper studies how U.S. local labor markets respond to employment losses that occur during recessions. Following … recessions from 1973 through 2009, we find that areas that lose more jobs during the recession experience persistent relative … result in longer-lasting consequences for local labor markets than previously thought, and that recessions are followed by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014296728
Workers who enter the labor market during recessions experience lasting earnings losses, but the role of non … find that labor market entry during recessions generates a 6 percent reduction in earnings cumulated over the first 15 … recessions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014304783
analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in … quantify the extent to which ROC could be exaggerating the true predictive value of the yield curve in predicting recessions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014377424
I estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the United States that incorporates oil market shocks and risk shocks working through credit market frictions. The findings of this analysis indicate that risk shocks play a crucial role during the Great Recession and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014476148