This paper was presented at the conference "Financial services at the crossroads: capital regulation in the twenty-first century" as part of session 5, "International capital allocation at financial institutions." The conference, held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on February 26-27,...

Optimal control theory can be combined with the probability structure of a vector autoregression to investigate the tradeoffs available to policy-makers. Such an approach obtains results based on a minimal set of assumptions about the economy and the structure of policy actions. This paper takes...

In this article, the authors measure and interpret the common 'factors' that describe money market returns. Results are presented for both three- and four-factor models. The authors find that the three-factor model explains, on average, 86 percent of the total variation in most money market...

Replaced by Working Paper 274 (July 1985)

This paper describes a Bayesian specification procedure used to generate a vector autoregressive model for forecasting macroeconomic variables. The specification search is over parameters of a prior. This quasi-Bayesian approach is viewed as a flexible tool for constructing a filter which...

This paper reexamines both monthly and quarterly U.S. postwar data to investigate if the observed comovements between money, real interestrates, prices and output are compatible with the money-real interest-output link suggested by existing monetary theories of output, which include both...