This paper analyses how many euro coins outflow from Germany and which composition of coins is to be expected in the long run. To this end, a simple mathematical model is formulated and calibrated for €1 coins. The introduction of the euro coins in 2002 presented a unique opportunity to...

In Deutschland wurde die Berechnung von Volumenaggregaten in der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung kürzlich von der Festpreismethode auf die Vorjahrespreismethode mit Verkettung (Kettenindizes) umgestellt. Volumenaggregate für Quartalsdaten werden in der amtlichen Statistik nun auf Basis...

The statistical overhang (carry-over effect) is the contribution of the previous year to growth in the current year. Practitioners use the statistical overhang routinely to pin down and rationalize short-term forecasts. This article analyses the statistical overhang ‘statistically’ and...

This book provides a description of the main macroeconomic models used by the European Central Bank and the euro area national central banks (Eurosystem). These models are used to help prepare economic projections and scenario analysis for individual countries and the euro area as a whole.

This Handbook provides an authoritative overview of current research in the field of cost–benefit analysis and is designed as a starting point for those interested in undertaking advanced research. The Handbook contains major contributions to the development of the field, focussing on...

Risk measures based on the Gaussian distribution are prone to understate the probability of extreme events. To capture fat tails and extreme events, we combine the Pareto law with finite variance bounds of Chebyshev. This density encompasses the tail behaviour of a wide range of random variables...

In dieser Studie wird die kürzlich von Feldstein (1996) aufgeworfene Frage für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland empirisch untersucht: "If the true and fully anticipated rate of inflation has stabilized at a low level, i.e. two per cent, is the gain from reducing inflation to zero worth the...

This study empirically investigates for the case of Germany the following question, recently posed by Feldstein (1996): "lf the true and fully anticipated rate of inflation has stabilized at a low level, i.e. two per cent, is the gain from reducing inflation to zero worth the sacrifice in output...

The carry-over effect is the advance contribution of the old year to growth in the new year. Among practitioners the informative content of the carry-over effect for short-term forecasting is undisputed and is used routinely in economic forecasting. In this paper, the carry-over effect is...