In this paper we focus on the analysis of the effect of prediction and estimation risk on the loss distribution, risk measures and economic capital. When variables for the determination of probability of default and loss distribution have to be predicted because they are not available at the...

This paper investigates the productivity puzzle in Germany. We focus on the time-varying relationship between German output and employment growth, in particular their decoupling in recent years. We estimate a correlated unobserved components model that allows for both persistent and cyclical...

Splines constitute an interesting way to flexibly estimate a nonlinear relationship between several covariates and a response variable using linear regression techniques. The popularity of splines is due to their easy application and hence the low computational costs since their basis functions...

This paper analyzes job referral effects that are based on residential location. We use geo-referenced record data for the entire working population and the corresponding establishments in the German Rhine-Ruhr metropolitan area. We estimate the propensity of two persons to work at the same...

We state that long-run restrictions that identify structural shocks in VAR models with unit roots lose their original interpretation if the fractional integration order of the affected variable is below one. For such fractionally integrated models we consider a medium-run approach that employs...

This paper deals with simultaneous interactions between the determinants of the US yield curve. For this purpose, we derive a multivariate unobserved components model based on the expectation hypothesis. The influencing factors of the term structure that arise from the structural model are a...

We propose flexible models for multivariate realized volatility dynamics which involve generalizations of the Box-Cox transform to the matrix case. The matrix Box-Cox model of realized covariances (MBC-RCov) is based on transformations of the covariance matrix eigenvalues, while for the Box-Cox...

We investigate the application of two topic models, latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) and the correlated topic model (CTM), to market basket analysis. Topic models measure the association between observed purchases and underlying latent activities of shoppers by conceiving each basket as random...

Between 1979 and 2009, the German labour market moved along a Beveridge curve with changing slope that used to shift outwards but shifted inwards after severe labour market reforms had come into force. We analyse these dynamics and focus on the macroeconomic outcome of the reforms. For that...

We state that long-run restrictions that identify structural shocks in VAR models with unit roots lose their original interpretation if the fractional integration order of the affected variable is below one. For such fractionally integrated models we consider a medium-run approach that employs...