This article introduces two new types of prediction errors in time series: the filtered prediction errors and the deletion prediction errors. These two prediction errors are obtained in the same sample used for estimation, but in such a way that they share some common properties with out of...

The problem of optimal estimation of missing observations in stationary Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models was solved in Jones (1980). Extension of his aproach to nonstationary integrated ARMA (i.e., ARIMA) models posed serious problems, having mostly' to do with the specification of...

The motivation for this paper arises from an article written by Peña et al. [40] in 2010,where they propose the eigenvectors associated with the extreme values of a kurtosismatrix as interesting directions to reveal the possible cluster structure of a dataset. In recent years many research...

In this paper we explore, analyse and apply the change-points detection and location procedures to conditional heteroskedastic processes. We focus on processes that have constant conditional mean, but present a dynamic behavior in the conditional variance and which can also be affected by...

We propose a new conditionally heteroskedastic factor model, the GICA-GARCH model, which combines independent component analysis (ICA) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models. This model assumes that the data are generated by a set of underlying independent components (ICs) that capture the...

GARCH volatilities depend on the unconditional variance, which is a non-linear function of the parameters. Consequently, they can have larger biases than estimated parameters. Using robust methods to estimate both parameters and volatilities is shown to outperform Maximum Likelihood procedures.

In statistical data analysis it is often important to compare, classify, and cluster different time series. For these purposes various methods have been proposed in the literature, but they usually assume time series with the same sample size. In this paper, we propose a spectral domain method...

We propose a Bayesian procedure for multiple outlier detection in linear models avoiding the masking problem. Our proposal is illustrated with several examples in which our procedure outperforms other recent methods for multiple outlier detection. The posterior probabilities of each data point...

This note shows that the dimension reduction method proposed by Li & Shedden (2002) is equivalent to the dynamic factor model introduced by Peña & Box (1987). Copyright 2009, Oxford University Press.