The basic analytical concepts, tools and results of the classical expected utility/subjective probability model of risk preferences and beliefs under subjective uncertainty can be extended to general “event-smooth” preferences over subjective acts that do not necessarily satisfy either of...

Every subjective state space with Euclidean structure contains almost-objective events which arbitrarily closely approximate the properties of objectively uncertain events for all individuals with event-smooth betting preferences - whether or not they are expected utility, state-independent, or...

Ambiguous choice problems which involve three or more outcome values can reveal aspects of ambiguity and ambiguity aversion which cannot be displayed in the classic two-outcome Ellsberg urn problems, and hence are not always captured by models designed to accommodate them. These aspects include...

Choice problems in the spirit of Ellsberg (1961) suggest that rank-dependent ("Choquet expected utility") preferences over subjective gambles might be subject to the same difficulties that Ellsberg's earlier examples posed for subjective expected utility. These difficulties stem from...

Although their goal is to separate a decision maker's underlying beliefs (their subjective probabilities of events) from their preferences (their attitudes toward risk), classic choice-theoretic derivations of subjective probability all rely upon some form of the Marschak-Samuelson "Independence...