The paper considers an agent who must choose an action today under uncertainty about the consequence of any chosen action but without having in mind a complete list of all the contingencies that could influence outcomes. She conceives of some relevant (subjective) contingencies but she is aware...

The de Finetti Theorem on exchangeable predictive priors is generalized to a framework where preference is represented by Choquet expected utility with respect to a belief function (a special capacity). The resulting model provides behavioral foundations for the decision-maker's subjective...

The paper outlines an exchangeable non-Bayesian model of preference generalizing the Savage/de Finetti classic model of subjective expected utility preference with an exchangeable prior. The treatment is informal, and the emphasis is on motivation and potential applications rather than on...

The paper outlines an exchangeable non-Bayesian model of preference generalizing the Savage/de Finetti classic model of subjective expected utility preference with an exchangeable prior. The treatment is informal, and the emphasis is on motivation and potential applications rather than on...

The de Finetti Theorem is a cornerstone of the Bayesian approach. Bernardo [4, p. 5] writes that its "message is very clear: if a sequence of observations is judged to be exchangeable, then any subset of them must be regarded as a random sample from some model, and there exists a prior...

The paper considers an agent who must choose an action today under uncertainty about the consequence of any chosen action but without having in mind a complete list of all the contingencies that could influence outcomes. She conceives of some relevant (subjective) contingencies but she is aware...

We study the demand for flexibility and what it reveals about subjective uncertainty. As in Kreps [D. Kreps, 1979. A representation theorem for 'preference for flexibility'. Econometrica 47, 565-577], Nehring [K. Nehring, 1996. Preference for flexibility and freedom of choice in a Savage...

The de Finetti Theorem is a cornerstone of the Bayesian approach. Bernardo (1996) writes that its "message is very clear: if a sequence of observations is judged to be exchangeable, then any subset of them must be regarded as a random sample from some model, and there exists a prior distribution...

We generalize de Finetti’s exchangeable Bayesian model to accommodate ambiguity. As a central motivating example, we consider a policy maker facing a cross-section of markets in which …rms play an entry game. Her theory is Nash equilibrium and it is incomplete because there are multiple...

In a setting with repeated experiments, where evidence about the experiments is symmetric, a decision-maker ranks bets (or acts) over their outcomes. We describe a stark modeling trade-off between symmetry of preference (indifference to permutations), dynamic consistency and ambiguity. Then,...