Distance-to-default (DD) is a measure of default risk derived from observed stock prices and book leverage using the structural credit risk model of Merton (1974). Despite the simplifying assumptions that underlie its derivation, DD has proven empirically to be a strong predictor of default. We...

Constant Proportion Debt Obligations (CPDOs) are structured credit derivatives that generate high coupon payments by dynamically leveraging a position in an underlying portfolio of investment-grade index default swaps. CPDO coupons and principal notes received high initial credit ratings from...

We analyze a six-factor model for Treasury bonds, corporate bonds, and swap rates and decompose swap spreads into three components: a convenience yield from holding Treasuries, a credit risk element from the underlying LIBOR rate, and a factor specific to the swap market. The convenience yield...

We consider a dynamic trade-off model of a firm's capital structure with debt renegotiation. Debt holders only accept restructuring offers from equity holders backed by threats which are in the equity holders' own interest to execute. Our model shows that in a complete information model in which...

We consider additive intensity (Aalen) models as an alternative to the multiplicative intensity (Cox) models for analyzing the default risk of a sample of rated, nonfinancial U.S. firms. The setting allows for estimating and testing the significance of time-varying effects. We use a variety of...

We analyze liquidity components of corporate bond spreads during 2005–2009 using a new robust illiquidity measure. The spread contribution from illiquidity increases dramatically with the onset of the subprime crisis. The increase is slow and persistent for investment grade bonds while the...

This paper investigates the pricing of step-up bonds, i.e. corporate bonds with provisions stating that the coupon payments increase as the credit rating level of the issuer declines. To assess the risk-neutral rating transition probabilities necessary to price these bonds, we introduce a new...

This article provides a Markov model for the term structure of credit risk spreads. The model is based on Jarrow and Turnbull (1995), with the bankruptcy process following a discrete state space Markov chain in credit ratings. The parameters of this process are easily estimated using observable...

We revisit a method used by Das et al. (2007) (DDKS) who jointly test and reject a specification of firm default intensities and the doubly stochastic assumption in intensity models of default. The method relies on a time change result for counting processes. With an almost identical set of...