This paper characterizes the monetary policy in Brazil through a forward-looking Taylor-rule-type reaction function before and after the Real plan, which stabilized inflation in July 1994. The results show that the interest rate response to inflation was greater than one-to-one before...

Testing the effects of short-selling restrictions on asset prices is challenging: shifts in stock lending supply usually are not observed directly. This paper takes advantage of a unique dataset that contains actual shifts in the lending supply curve for several stocks on the Brazilian market....

According to theory, the level of short-selling can predict short-run future returns through two channels. One channel relates to the demand-side of the stock lending market: short-sellers are informed. The other channel relates to the supply-side: short-sellers are restricted. Measuring the...

This paper sets out a formal model to account for the net effect of an exchange rate devaluation on both income elasticities of demand for export and imports and, consequently, on the long-term balance-of-payments constrained growth rate. Such model shows how the exchange rate impacts on the...

We provide evolutionary game-theoretic microfoundations to a dynamic complete nominal adjustment in response to a monetary shock by introducing a novel analytical notion we call boundedly rational inattentiveness. We investigate the behavior of the general price level in a context where a firm...

We investigate whether racial discrimination taking the form of the biased assessment of students is prevalent within Brazilian schools. Robust evidence is drawn from unique data pertaining to middle-school students and educators. After holding constant performance in blindly scored tests of...

Macroeconomists have emphasized the force of facts in forging a consensus understanding of business cycle fluctuations. According to this view, rival economists could no longer hold disparate views on the topic because “facts have a way of not going away” (Blanchard 2009). But how can...

Drawing on a considerable empirical and experimental literature that finds persistent and endogenously time-varying heterogeneity in inflation expectations, this paper embeds two inflation forecasting strategies – one based on costly full rationality or perfect foresight, the second based on...

The paper focuses some of the non-monetary structural causes of inflationary persistence in Brazil in the post-Real plan period. A connection is made between the de-industrializing trend and the emergence of primary pressures that set a floor to inflation levels. The framework is set up in terms...

Estimation of dynamic games is known to be a numerically challenging task. A common form of the payoff functions employed in practice takes the linear-in-parameter specification. We show a least squares estimator taking a familiar OLS/GLS expression is available in such case. Our proposed...