DSGE models have recently become one of the most frequently used tools in policy analysis. Nevertheless, their forecasting proprieties are still unexplored. In this article we address this problem by examining the quality of forecasts from a small size DSGE model, a trivariate VAR model and the...

In this study, we use the tools of cross-spectral analysis and structural vector autoregression (SVAR) modelling to investigate whether there exists a significant link between the movement of the cyclical component of real GDP in developed and emerging economies. Specifically, we look at the...

The literature on exchange rate forecasting is vast. Many researchers have tested whether implications of theoretical economic models or the use of advanced econometric techniques can help explain future movements in exchange rates. The results of the empirical studies for major world currencies...

The literature on exchange rate forecasting is vast. Many researchers have tested whether implications of theoretical economic models or the use of advanced econometric techniques can help explain future movements in exchange rates. The results of the empirical studies for major world currencies...

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models have recently become standard tools for policy-oriented analyses. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real-time forecasts from a richly-specified DSGE model to those from...

House prices are usually characterized by periods of long-lasting growth that lead to uncertainty concerning their persistence. This uncertainty is of special importance for central banks: the prolonged periods of rise followed by sudden fall in house prices are often associated with a credit...

Poland faces one of the most rapidly ageing population in Europe. The old age dependency ratio is expected to triple until 2060. Against this background, our paper examines the sustainability of Polish public finances and its isolated subsystems. We consider the profound recent reforms including...

We study market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis. In our analysis we use a parsimonious CDS pricing model to estimate market implied measures of the probability of default (PD) and of the loss given default (LGD). We find that separate...

The aim of this paper is to show how housing tenure (rented vs. owner-occupied) affects monetary policy. In order to do that, I propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with housing, both owned and rented. First, I analyze how, in the model, preference parameters, fiscal incentives...