This paper examines how distance and economic size influence the level of international trade. Parameters for an international gravity trade model are estimated and used to calculate annual expected aggregate trade for Australia over the last 20 years. This model also includes a new indicator of...

This paper explores the sources of fluctuations in sectoral employment growth rates across the Australian economy over three different periods: the pre-terms of trade boom period; the pre-GFC phase of the terms of trade boom; and the GFC and post-GFC phase. We find that common cyclical...

Over the past 40 years, Australia’s labour productivity level relative to the United States has trended slowly upwards. However, there remains a substantial gap between Australian and United States labour productivity levels. The persistence of this gap has raised questions about whether there...

Australia is (with New Zealand) one of the two most remote advanced economies in the world in terms of average distance from world economic activity. The rapid economic growth of countries in the Asian region in recent decades has resulted in only a modest reduction in Australia’s level of...

L’auteur remercie Jyoti Rahman, David Gruen, Lewis Evans, Ben Dolman, Robert Ewing, Graeme Davis, Janine Murphy, Gene Tunny, Dave Turner et Sveinbjörn Blöndal des précieuses remarques faites lors de la rédaction de cet article. Les opinions exprimées ici n’engagent que lui et ne sont...

The author is grateful to Jyoti Rahman, David Gruen, Lewis Evans, Ben Dolman, Robert Ewing, Graeme Davis, Janine Murphy, Gene Tunny, Dave Turner and Sveinbjörn Blöndal for helpful comments in preparing this paper. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the...

This paper develops a theory of consumer discrete choice and an empirical model for multi-class demand in the presence of capacity constraints. A key aspect of the proposed theory is that the probability of the availability of a discrete alternative may be manipulated by expending resources....

In recent years, a series of studies have been undertaken in Australia that use static general equilibrium models with a representative household to compare the relative efficiency of different Australian taxes. This paper aims to complement these earlier studies and contribute to a broader...

This paper develops a framework for projecting the GDP growth of Australia’s trading partners from 2012 to 2050. The framework draws heavily on the existing conditional growth literature, including long-standing estimates of key convergence parameters. It adds to the large amount of research...

Treasury’s forecasting framework has evolved over the past 21 years from the outlook for a single financial year to the outlook for the Australian economy 40 years ahead for intergenerational analysis. A constant through this evolution has been the sharp distinction between the methodologies...