The problem of diagnostic checking is tackled from the perspective of the subspace methods. Two statistics are presented and its asymptotic distributions are derived under the null. The procedures generalize the Box-Pierce statistic for single series and the Hoskings' statistic in the...

A new procedure to predict with subspace methods is presented in this paper. It is based on combining multiple forecasts obtained from setting a range of values for a specic parameter that is typically xed by the user in the subspace methods literature. An algorithm to compute these predictions...

This paper addresses two important topics in recent economic historiography: globalization and the great divergence. We first present a search for statistical evidence in the Far East of an “Early Globalization” comparable to the one ongoing in the West since the mid-eighteenth century....

Globalization, if defined as the integration of international commodity markets, started in the eighteenth century and progressed gradually and with some setbacks into the nineteenth century, instead of suddenly appearing at some point after the 1820s. We use grain prices in Europe and the...

Espasa and Mayo provide consistent forecasts for an aggregate economic indicator and its basic components as well as for useful sub-aggregates. To do so, they develop a procedure based on single-equation models that includes the restrictions arisen from the fact that some components share common...

This paper discusses how to specify the order of a state-space model. To do so, we start by revising existing approaches and find in them two basic shortcomings: (i) some of them have a poor performance in short samples and (ii) most of them are not robust, meaning that their performance...

In this paper we analyse the market integration process of the relative price distribution, develop a model to analyze market integration, and present a formal test of increasing market integration. We distinguish between the economic concepts of price convergence in mean and in variance. When...

This paper features an analysis of the e_ectiveness of a range of portfolio diversification strategies as applied to a set of 17 years of monthly hedge fund index returns on a set of ten market indices representing 13 major hedge fund categories, as compiled by the EDHEC Risk Institute. The...

One of the fastest growing areas in empirical finance, and also one of the least rigorously analyzed, especially from a financial econometrics perspective, is the econometric analysis of financial derivatives, which are typically complicated and difficult to analyze. The purpose of this special...

It is common practice to evaluate fixed-event forecast revisions in macroeconomics by regressing current forecast revisions on one-period lagged forecast revisions. Under weak-form (forecast) efficiency, the correlation between the current and one-period lagged revisions should be zero. The...