This paper investigates the predictive power of the yield spread on future industrial production growth and recession in Turkey. Employing the linear regression model we find that the yield spread has predictive power when forecasting industrial production growth. The results also suggest that...

We provide probability forecasts of key Turkish macroeconomic variables such as inflation and output growth. The probability forecasts are derived from a core vector error correction model of the Turkish economy and its several variants. We use model and window averaging to address uncertainties...

In this study we investigate the yield curve forecasting performance of Dynamic Nelson–Siegel Model (DNS), affine term structure VAR model (ATSM VAR) and principal component model (PC) in Turkey. We also investigate the role of macroeconomic variables in forecasting the yield curve. We have...

The aim of this article is to analyse Turkey's bilateral trade dynamics with respect to a panel of seven countries. Employing several panel cointegration techniques, we show that the effect of a devaluation of Turkish currency on trade balance is country specific and there is no J-curve effect.

This article contributes to the vast literature on the predictive power of term structure on future inflation by focusing on an emerging market case: Turkey. The most important result emerging in our article is the following: Monetary policy change is an important determinant of the relationship...

This paper contributes to the literature on the relationship between the yield curve and macroeconomic variables by focusing on an emerging market case: Turkey. The most important result of the paper is that the relationship between the yield curve and macroeconomic variables is significantly...