Agricultural production is subject to supply risk. Expected and realized farm outputs and output prices are unknown and unobservable when inputs are chosen. Crop and livestock production decisions are linked over time. Producers’ expectations are particularly difficult to model. This paper...

Two common problems in econometric models of production are aggregation and unobservable variables. Many production processes are subject to production shocks, hence both expected and realized output is unknown when inputs are committed. Expectations processes are notoriously difficult to model,...