What predicts returns on assets with "hard-to-value" fundamentals, such as Bitcoin and stocks in new industries? We propose an equilibrium model that shows how rational learning enables return predictability through technical analysis. We document that ratios of prices to their moving averages...

Technical analysis is the study for forecasting future asset prices with past data. In this survey, we review and extend studies on not only the time-series predictive power of technical indicators on the aggregated stock market and various portfolios, but also the cross-sectional predictability...

We study model-driven statistical arbitrage strategies in U.S. equities. Trading signals are generated in two ways: using Principal Component Analysis and using sector ETFs. In both cases, we consider the residuals, or idiosyncratic components of stock returns, and model them as a mean-reverting...

In this paper, we reveal that in the Chinese stock market, the significant negative relationship between tail risk and expected returns only exists when excluding the bottom 30% market capitalization (small-cap) stocks, a finding that helps to reconcile the mixed result of the tail risk effect...

In this paper, we find that the idiosyncratic volatility (IV) effect on expected returns exists and cannot be explained by other variables in the Chinese stock market. The Chinese stock market launched margin trading in March 2010. We therefore study the margin trading target and non-margin...